New Delhi, Monday, 15.04.2019: Shri Sanjay K Jain, Chairman, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), stated that the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), had estimated the Cotton Crop to be 361 lakh bales on 22nd November 2018. However subsequently based on the arrivals and crop situation, CITI feels that the cotton crop may go as low as 343 lakh bales. Today, there is a great amount of uncertainty regarding the estimation of cotton crop situation in the country causing great hardship for value added textile industry, especially for the Spinning Industry. There are rumours doing the rounds in the media indicating a very low crop estimation which is creating chaos in the market and prompting people to stock cotton in anticipation.
The chart gives below the cotton crop situation during last 12 years and based on the same an extrapolation has been done based on different scenarios.
| Crop year | Area sowing lakh hec. | Crop size in lakh bales (170 kgs) | Yield/ hectare (in kgs) | Sowing for 2018-19 (Oct-10) | Crop size if yield is like Corresponding yr (in lac bales) | |
| 2006-07 | 91.44 | 280 | 521 | 122.38 | 375 | |
| 2007-08 | 94.14 | 307 | 554 | 122.38 | 399 | |
| 2008-09 | 94.06 | 290 | 524 | 122.38 | 377 | |
| 2009-10 | 103.10 | 305 | 503 | 122.38 | 362 | |
| 2010-11 | 111.42 | 339 | 517 | 122.38 | 372 | |
| 2011-12 | 121.78 | 367 | 512 | 122.38 | 369 | |
| 2012-13 | 119.78 | 370 | 525 | 122.38 | 378 | |
| 2013-14 | 119.60 | 398 | 566 | 122.38 | 407 | |
| 2014-15 | 128.46 | 386 | 511 | 122.38 | 368 | |
| 2015-16 | 118.77 | 338 | 484 | 122.38 | 348 | |
| 2016-17 | 105.00 | 345 | 559 | 122.38 | 402 | |
| 2017-18 | 124.29 | 370 | 506 | 122.38 | 364 | |
| Crop estimate for 2018-19 under different conditions | ||||||
| AVERAGE OF 12 YEARS | 523 | 122.38 | 377 | |||
| AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS | 521 | 122.38 | 375 | |||
| AVERAGE OF WORST 5 YEARS YIELD | 503 | 122.38 | 362 | |||
| AVERAGE OF WORST 3 YEARS | 498 | 122.38 | 358 | |||
| AVERAGE OF WORST YEAR | 484 | 122.38 | 348 | |||
It, thus, clearly shows that even if we assume the yield to be the worst in 12 years, the cotton crop would be at 348 lakh bales.
Chairman pointed out that drought in many cotton growing regions of Gujarat, a few regions of Maharashtra and a few areas in other cotton growing states has affected cotton yield. Accordingly, CITI has revised the cotton crop estimates for 2018-19 based on the actual data collected from the cotton growing areas in the country to 343 lakh bales of 170 kgs. The fresh balance sheet drawn by CITI is as follows:
Cotton Balance Sheet for the year 2018-19 (Crop Season Oct-Sept)
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