CITI ESTIMATES COTTON CROP TO BE 343 LAKH BALES FOR 2018-19

New Delhi, Monday, 15.04.2019: Shri Sanjay K Jain, Chairman, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), stated that the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), had estimated the Cotton Crop to be 361 lakh bales on 22nd November 2018. However subsequently based on the arrivals and crop situation, CITI feels that the cotton crop may go as low as 343 lakh bales. Today, there is a great amount of uncertainty regarding the estimation of cotton crop situation in the country causing great hardship for value added textile industry, especially for the Spinning Industry. There are rumours doing the rounds in the media indicating a very low crop estimation which is creating chaos in the market and prompting people to stock cotton in anticipation.

The chart gives below the cotton crop situation during last 12 years and based on the same an extrapolation has been done based on different scenarios.

Crop year Area sowing lakh hec. Crop size in lakh bales (170 kgs) Yield/ hectare (in kgs) Sowing for 2018-19 (Oct-10) Crop size if yield is like Corresponding yr (in lac bales)
2006-07 91.44 280 521 122.38 375
2007-08 94.14 307 554 122.38 399
2008-09 94.06 290 524 122.38 377
2009-10 103.10 305 503 122.38 362
2010-11 111.42 339 517 122.38 372
2011-12 121.78 367 512 122.38 369
2012-13 119.78 370 525 122.38 378
2013-14 119.60 398 566 122.38 407
2014-15 128.46 386 511 122.38 368
2015-16 118.77 338 484 122.38 348
2016-17 105.00 345 559 122.38 402
2017-18 124.29 370 506 122.38 364
          Crop estimate for 2018-19 under different conditions
AVERAGE OF 12 YEARS 523 122.38 377
AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS 521 122.38 375
AVERAGE OF WORST 5 YEARS YIELD 503 122.38 362
AVERAGE OF WORST 3 YEARS 498 122.38 358
AVERAGE OF WORST YEAR 484 122.38 348

It, thus, clearly shows that even if we assume the yield to be the worst in 12 years, the cotton crop would be at 348 lakh bales.

Chairman pointed out that drought in many cotton growing regions of Gujarat, a few regions of Maharashtra and a few areas in other cotton growing states has affected cotton yield. Accordingly, CITI has revised the cotton crop estimates for 2018-19 based on the actual data collected from the cotton growing areas in the country to 343 lakh bales of 170 kgs. The fresh balance sheet drawn by CITI is as follows:

Cotton Balance Sheet for the year 2018-19 (Crop Season Oct-Sept)

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